Creating forecasts for days ahead

To produce weather forecasts for one to 15 days ahead, we use a variety of techniques. Our North Atlantic and European numerical forecast model provides more detailed information over this region in forecasts out to two days ahead. In addition, our short-range ensemble prediction system, MOGREPS, provides information on the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts.

Forecasting the oceans

For those working at sea or living near the coast, forecasts of wave height, ocean currents or storm surges up to days ahead are just as vital as forecasts of the weather.

Forecasting days ahead

When forecasting more than two days ahead we need to use our global forecast model, because the weather happening many thousands of miles away today will affect the weather over the UK in a few days time. In medium-range forecasts, two to 15 days ahead, the use of an ensemble is essential as the uncertainty in the large-scale weather patterns becomes greater.